We are living in the midst of an unprecedented transition, sometimes called the agequake. By 2050 the number of older persons in the world will exceed the number of young for the first time in history. As the 21st century began, the world’s population included approximately 600 million older people, triple the number recorded 50 years earlier. By mid-century, there will be some 2 billion elderly – once again a tripling of the age group in a span of 50 years. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Will societies have the resources to pay for the increased needs of older people, particularly when the number of working young is diminishing? In the developed countries, national wealth has increased along with the increase in ageing. The underdeveloped countries will reach their agequake before their wealth increases.

Over the years the UN has recognized this trend and has explored the many issues it raises. Every October the UN celebrates the Day of Older Persons. Two major world conferences on ageing have been held, one in 1982, and one more recently in 2002. The 1982 conference mostly concerned the richer countries where the ageing had begun. There the issues were discussed in terms of caring for the welfare of older persons. At the 2002 conference the emphasis was on mainstreaming older people, using their skills as a treasured resource. The approach was inter-generational, avoiding age stratification into youth groups and elder enclaves. By building bridges between generations, the model is a society for all ages.

The facts are simple. In most countries people are having fewer children, and people are living longer. However, because of the explosive birth rate of the past, some societies are going through a massive youth bulge, with more than half the population under 25 – in Saudi Arabia 62%, Yemen 68%, and Iran 60%. Many young people are becoming restless without productive work. They present a major and growing political problem.

At the annual celebration of the International Day of Older Persons the emphasis was on healthy active ageing, education for all ages, human rights and dignity. We have added years to our lives. What kind of life will we add to these years?

Sylvain and Phyllis Ehrenfeld are IHEU Representatives to the UN and the AEU’s National Service Conference.